2002-2014
I spent most of the day today checking out NGO press conferences, attending a plenary to hear Minister Baird speak and finally having a bit of fun seeing the Fossil of the Day award ceremony.
NGO press briefings are a good way to get updated as to what the civil society groups are most concerned about and which delegations are the current target of lobbying activities.
In the morning, the Climate Action Network International (CAN) press briefing touched upon the overall state of the negotiations and which countries were helping or hindering the process. The good news is that some of the emerging economies such as China have stepped up and are willing to discuss ways in which their nations could achieve emissions reductions (For the first Kyoto commitment period of 2008 to 2012 developed countries are leading the way and only those listed in 'Annex 1' - including Canada - are legally bound to reduce emissions by an average of 6% below 1990 levels). Similarly, developing countries are focused on what the mechanisms/tools (i.e. how it would be funded and by whom) might be for adaptation and technology transfer that would allow these nations to begin to reduce emissions.
The olive branches being extended by developing countries are linked to the need for Annex 1 (developed countries) to provide leadership and commit to deeper emissions cuts for the second commitment period (post 2012) and to show good faith by playing a significant role in funding the technology transfer needed to facilitate projects in the developing world.
The problem is that there a few delegations (the Bush administration, with Canada and Japan following their lead) that are refusing to play ball and acknowledge that developing countries are coming to the table in exactly the way that governments such as Canada have been demanding that they do - yet the industrialized countries are still not willing to discuss quantitative targets (no matter that they are science based and taken from the IPCC report). This exposes the reality that some developed countries are simply spouting rhetoric and are not really prepared to negotiate, despite what they say to the press.
The US CAN press briefing took place later in the day. Its focus was on the glaring disparity between US statements and the actions of its negotiators here at the conference. It was pointed out the US has acknowledged the veracity of the science on climate change, the need for serious action, the desire for a positive outcome here in Bali and the intention to negotiate in good faith. However, the US is currently tied with (you guessed it) Canada for receipt of the most 'Fossil of the Day' awards handed out by NGOs - in many cases for blocking consensus or introducing language late in the negotiations that derails, confuses and prolongs negotiations. Pressure on the US is intensifying, but it is anyone's guess as to whether they may capitulate on any of the significant sticking points. (These include the target of between 25% and 40% reduction in GHG emissions (in relation to 1990 levels) as part of the 'Bali Roadmap', or developed countries agreeing to help fund technology transfer to assist developing countries in reducing emissions).
Zipping over to plenary in between press briefings, I caught Minister Baird's speech. Although there was nothing earth shattering to make me cheer, he refrained from referencing the Canadian government position that all major emitting countries (including emerging economies such as China and India) need to take on binding emissions reduction targets (a ridiculous assertion from a country that is failing to do anything substantive to reduce its own emissions). He at least asserted that climate change is the defining challenge of our time and that Canada supports the conclusions of the IPCC fourth assessment report (even though in practice, the Canadian government's plan comes nowhere close to meeting targets the IPCC says are needed).
I caught up with a bit more news at the CAN daily meeting, but increasingly the news is minute by minute as the substantive negotiations move to high level 'informals' (read: talking in hallways or anywhere outside of formal meetings) and closed meetings - and it is hard to keep up.
There is a sense that a "Bali Roadmap" to guide the negotiations to arrive at the commitments, details and rules for the post 2012 commitment period by the desired 2009 deadline is definitely possible. (There have been fears that a few unfinished issues might totally blow up any hope of a consensus document - but it seems that most of these have been wrangled out to the extent that delegates were able to forward language to the Ministers to work with on all the main issues - adaptation, mitigation, technology and finance). As usual, though, no one thinks that this will wrap up nicely by Friday evening and people are preparing for a marathon Friday night / Saturday morning. In 2005 Canada's Minister Dion banged down the gavel and closed the conference at 6am after a long night into morning. I, however, will be in my bed sound asleep Friday night. I'll log on to the listserve the Saturday morning to see what the final outcome will be . . .
My last stop Thursday was the Fossil of the Day awards ceremony, held every night @ 6pm. It is a really fun, tongue in cheek event. The logo and 'anthem' are a parody of Jurassic Park, and Ben Winkler - of Avaaz.org, the MC for the ceremony - is a quick wit and theatrics are hilarious. The US being a double winner (Canada was too - a group of countries were awarded first place, the US was second and Canada was third), a group of US youth sang a song they had composed, satirizing the US's obstructive tactics. By then, it was almost 6:30pm, and I was dead on my feet, my cold sapping my energy. Dinner and bed were calling and overruled seeing the arrival of Al Gore.