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Climate Change Research |
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Climate Science - An Overview |
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2007 IPCC Reports |
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National Tax and Trade on Carbon - Best Option |
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 The Conference Board of Canada, an independent economic think-tank, released Use Green Taxes and Market Instruments to reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions. The report indicates 'green taxes' accompanied by a cap and trade system will establish a price on pollution and create incentives to change the behavior of individuals and firms.Canada produces 2 percent of the world's annual GHG emissions, and the levels are 32.7 percent higher than the Kyoto benchmark set for Canada. The report indicates Canada must act with "decisive domestic policy action and a commitment to develop and deploy leading edge technologies that improve both our environmental and economic performance will help position Canada as a leader in global negotiations and build a consensus for effective global action, and it will support domestic technological innovation". View Conference Board of Canada report, Use Green Taxes and Market Instruments to reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions Sources: Canada.com, National Post, Conference Board of Canada |
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Climate Change Response Under a New US President |
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Dr. George Woodwell, Director Emeritus of the Woods Hole Research Center, was invited to the University of Ottawa Institute of the Environment to speak about US climate change policy following the change in president, in early 2008. His challenge to his audience and those concerned about climate change is to avoid urgent global warming effects by abruptly stopping our oil and carbon based economy. Download the November 14, 2007 Lecture by Dr. Woodwell to the University of Ottawa (DOC) |
Global CO2 Rising Faster Than Expected |
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 Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere have risen faster than expected since 2000, says a new study by the Global Carbon Project, University of East Anglia, UK, and the British Antarctic Survey. Carbon dioxide emissions were 35 percent higher in 2006 than in 1990, a much faster growth rate than anticipated.The authors analyzed atmospheric CO2 observations and CO2 emissions data since 1959 and compared both observed and projected trends. The team of international scientists found that inefficiency in the use of fossil fuels increased levels of CO2 by 17 percent. The other 18 percent increase came from a decline in the natural ability of land and oceans to soak up CO2 from the atmosphere. Traditionally, about half of the emissions resulting from human activity are absorbed by natural "sinks" but efficiency of these sinks has fallen, the study suggests. The weakening of the Earth's ability to cope with absorbing greenhouse gases is thought to be a result of changing wind patterns over seas and droughts on land. Alan Robock, associate director of the Center for Environmental Prediction at Rutgers University, added, "What is really shocking is the reduction of the oceanic CO2 sink," (the ability of the ocean to absorb carbon dioxide, removing it from the atmosphere). Robock said he thinks rising ocean temperatures reduce the ability to take in the gas. The study states that global CO2 emissions were up to 9.9 billion tons of carbon in 2006, 35 percent above emissions in 1990 (used as a reference year in Kyoto Protocol). The changes "characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger-than-expected and sooner-than-expected climate forcing". View October 23, 2007 Reuters article on Planet Ark View October 23, 2007 Science Daily article View October 23, 2007 BBC News article View October 23, 2007 Associated Press article View Carbon Trends webpage of the Global Carbon Project Sources: BBC News, Science Daily, Associated Press, Global Carbon Project |
Serious Global Warming: The Stern Review |
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The Stern Review, by the UK government's expert report on the economics of global warming released October 30th, made waves in the world with its pronouncement that it will be more cost-effective to take action to reduce climate change than face the economic consequences of failing to act."The costs of stabilizing the climate are significant but manageable; delay would be dangerous and much more costly." according to Sir Nicolas Stern, Head of the Government Economic Service, former World Bank Chief Economist, and author of the Review. Some of the more surprising assertions of the Stern Review:
View the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change View the October 26, 2006 Guardian Unlimited article View the October 31, 2006 Guardian Unlimited Commentary by George Monbiot Sources: UK Government, Toronto Star |
Climate Change Risk |
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Climate Change is not just about warm weather. Increasingly, scientists are warning of the implications and risks associated with higher average global temperatures.Even if was feasible for global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to be eliminated tomorrow, because of our past (and current) activities, we are already committed to a certain level of climate change, which includes impacts on our ecosystems. This is because GHG persist in the atmosphere for a century or more. For instance,
The global average surface temperature increased by about 0.6°C over the 20th century. Observational evidence tells us that regional changes in climate, have already affected physical and biological systems in many parts of the world. Examples of observed changes include:
Natural systems at risk include glaciers, coral reefs and atolls, mangroves, boreal and tropical forests, polar and alpine ecosystems, prairie wetlands, and remnant native grasslands. While some species may increase in abundance or range, climate change will increase existing risks of extinction of some more vulnerable species and loss of biodiversity. It is well-established that the geographical extent of the damage or loss, and the number of systems affected, will increase with the magnitude and rate of climate change.
Human systems are also at risk from climate change Human systems that are sensitive to climate change include mainly water resources; agriculture (especially food security) and forestry; coastal zones and marine systems (fisheries); human settlements, energy, and industry; insurance and other financial services; and human health. |
When is Climate Change 'Dangerous'? |
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| The fundamental objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), as specified in Article 2, is the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations at levels that "would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system".
Defining what constitutes "dangerous anthropogenic interference" is not a straightforward task. If asked, some communities on the planet would say that they are already experiencing events and trends that threaten their health and well-being and also that of their environment. So far, the UNFCCC has not attempted to define "dangerous anthropogenic interference" or what acceptable limits may be to impacts on ecosystems, food production or economic development. Scientists have developed models and scenarios that indicate that the globally averaged surface temperature could increase by 1.4°C to 5.8°C over the period 1990 to 2100. What degree of climate change will actually occur over the next century is largely dependant on decisions we make over the next few years to reduce GHG emissions, and the speed we will do so. 
For each degree of global average temperature increase, predicted effects on the planet's ecosystems, human health and the economy become more severe.Global climate warming in excess of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels is a change that more and more scientists believe would be 'dangerous'. Some analyses indicate that many ecosystems are vulnerable to substantial damage at or above 1.5-2.0°C warming range. Staying below the 2°C ceiling will mean keeping global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases below about 450 parts per million - but even this concentration will result in significant impacts on the earth's ecosystems, human health, and the global economy. To stay below the 2°C target, significant cuts in emissions must take place. The British Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution has decided that a 60 per cent cut in global emissions by 2050 is needed. The British government has adopted 60% reduction as its national target. Canada, on the other hand has not engaged its citizens in a discussion about national targets for emissions reductions beyond the first commitment phase of Kyoto (2008-2012). Canada's commitment under the Kyoto Protocol is to reduce its annual GHG emissions over the period 2008-2012 to a level 6% below actual emissions in 1990. Our country's emissions in 1990 were about 596 Mt (megatonne - one million tones), and in 2003 Canada's emissions were ~24% above the 1990 level - approximately 739 Mt. To keep our Kyoto commitment, over the 2008-2012 period, our emissions should not on average exceed 560 Mt. It is clear that without specific action, Canada's GHG emissions would continue to rise. The Government of Canada estimates that in the absence of any action to reduce them (the business-as-usual or BAU scenario), our emissions in 2010 would rise to ~36% above 1990 levels, or ~45% above our Kyoto target. Most of the information above is from the Third Assessment Report (2001) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For more in-depth discussion of climate change risk, visit the IPCC web site. |
Ways to Address Climate Change |
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